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Comment: Hair change appoint report or help adjusting control of the value that
From;    Author:Stand originally

Recently, national hair changes appoint release a report to point out, room value is total first quarter this year go up an apparent hasten delay; Because each trade to rise of cost quickly, price of 2 quarters house rises pressure is increased, will show the sign that rises blandly (on April 23 " new capital signs up for " ) .

The author thinks, the possibility that price of 2 quarters house rises is very large really. But, the consideration that report place weighs to aid the price that push a house to rise remains however deliberate. The attribute of sudden huge profits of real estate is well-known, cost discretion affects the gain space with development final business only, be not however is the critical factor that helps the price that push a house rise; And estate is tasted as a kind of investment, psychology anticipates to prospective value change is having more crucial effect effect.

This report thinks, rise in price with land natural resources those who give priority to a series of trading cost is climbed rising is the main factor that prompts price of 2 quarters house to rise. This one viewpoint and fact not conform to. Data investigation makes clear, the proportion that land price holds in estate totle drilling cost is not very tall. With respect to countrywide average level character, land price is occupied mediumly in commodity house totle drilling cost than for 26% , beijing is 22.98% , shanghai has 16.15% only. This decided land cost is impossible to become the decide person of final room price; Space of estate gross profit is larger, completely capable to digest these trading of cost rise. The personage inside a few course of study ever also admitted sudden huge profits of real estate existence publicly. And Wuhan a landed company is one-time depreciate 30% . This company controller still to media calm old " even if such, still can get 10% to the profit of 15% " .

In fact, aid the psychology of the person that the main factor that pushs price of 2 quarters house still depends on buying a house to anticipate. With respect to market demand square and character, early days can manage money wait-and-see await price fall after a rise, because measure of adjusting control policy and market situation gave house price the hope that drops possibly,basically be. But look from historical convention, marry, the blank time that the rigid demand place such as settle can tolerate won't be very long, the limit often does not cross left and right sides of half an year. Developing business just is this one weakness that saw through market tigidity demand, after awaiting time of half an year patiently to go, the ground gains the success of the sale. The fact before also makes clear, inside time of this half an year, relevant adjusting control policy often is " before the pine after tightening " , the vacuum that till final phase makes policy almost,comes on stage. Just can make so halt of price of all previous house perhaps drops, final it is erupt with rigid demand and terminative, and begin new round house price rises.
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